China's Mega Dams: Ambitions and Risks from the Three Gorges Dam to the Medog

An in-depth analysis of China’s grand ambitions to reshape Asia’s geopolitics using river flows as weapons, and the hidden risks behind them.

• The engineering achievements and hidden dangers of two Chinese mega dams, the Three Gorges Dam and the Medog Dam
• How China exerts geopolitical influence (water hegemony) through river control
• Practical international responses to mega dam projects

Two Dams, Two Fears

The story begins with two massive rivers and the two dams blocking them. One is the world’s largest dam, the Three Gorges Dam. During the record floods of 2020, satellite images circulated suggesting deformation of the dam, sparking collapse rumors. The Chinese government denied these claims, but the incident revealed public anxiety about human arrogance trying to control nature and the hidden dangers beneath the structure.

The other is the Medog (Motuo) Dam, under construction deep in the Himalayas on the Yarlung Tsangpo River. This dam is not just a power plant. Downstream India calls it an “existential threat” and a kind of “water bomb.” Because China, controlling the upstream, can deliberately release or hold back water, it becomes a geopolitical weapon that can determine the fate of downstream countries. This article traces the clash of great powers shaking Asia’s future through these two dams.

Three Gorges Dam: Glory and Shadows

The Three Gorges Dam symbolizes the Chinese Communist Party’s philosophy of conquering nature and pursuing national development. Its massive scale carries both clear glory and shadows.

Grand Vision: Flood Control, Power Generation, and Inland Development

The primary justification for building the Three Gorges Dam was to control the destructive Yangtze River floods. After completion, it protected 15 million people and vast farmland, preventing enormous economic losses.

The second goal was massive power generation. With an installed capacity of 22,500 MW, it is the world’s largest hydropower plant, replacing millions of tons of coal and becoming a core of China’s energy security.

Finally, the dam created a huge canal linking inland cities like Chongqing to Shanghai, reducing logistics costs and driving the ‘Western Development’ strategy to develop the underdeveloped western regions.

Ecological Costs: A Chain Reaction of Destruction

However, the cost of taming nature was severe. The dam blocked fish migration routes, causing a 90% decline in key commercial fish fry, ultimately leading to the extinction of species like the Yangtze River dolphin (baiji).

Slowed river flow caused pollutants to accumulate, turning the reservoir into a ‘giant cesspool,’ and trapping massive sediment annually, causing serious problems. The sediment-filtered ‘hungry water’ erodes downstream riverbeds, destroying the coastline of the Shanghai delta and triggering long-term ecological collapse. What shocked me most during this research was the choice to sacrifice the ecosystem’s foundation for short-term gains.

Human Costs and Shaken Foundations

At least 1.3 million people were forced to leave their homes for the dam’s construction. Insufficient compensation and corruption pushed displaced people into deeper poverty, and resistance was harshly suppressed.

Moreover, the reservoir’s enormous weight of 39.3 billion cubic meters exerted pressure on the crust, causing a new risk called ‘Reservoir-Induced Seismicity (RIS).’ Some analyses show seismic activity increased 30-fold after the dam’s completion, raising ongoing concerns about the dam’s structural stability due to geological instability.

Medog Dam: The Himalayan Geopolitical ‘Water Bomb’

If the Three Gorges Dam was a product of domestic ambition, the Medog Dam under construction in the Himalayas is a far more dangerous game expanding that ambition beyond borders.

Unimaginable Scale

The Medog Dam’s planned capacity is 60 GW, nearly three times that of the Three Gorges Dam. Its expected annual generation matches the entire electricity consumption of the UK. This will be one of the most expensive infrastructure projects in human history, officially approved in December 2024, aiming for commercial operation by 2033.

‘Building a Dam on Tofu’

The Medog Dam site lies where the Indian and Eurasian plates collide, one of the most geologically active places on Earth. An expert criticized it as “like building on tofu.” The extreme risk of earthquakes and landslides means that if the dam collapses, the disaster would cross borders, affecting India and Bangladesh, becoming an international catastrophe.

Side-by-Side Comparison: Three Gorges Dam vs. Medog Hydropower Station

The two dams differ fundamentally in scale and risk. The Three Gorges Dam’s problems mostly remain within China, while the Medog Dam’s impact crosses borders.

Rivers as Weapons: China’s ‘Water Hegemony’ Strategy

China’s dam construction is not just infrastructure but part of a ‘hydro-hegemony’ strategy to control river flows and secure geopolitical influence. This strategy has already materialized on the Mekong River.

China built over 12 dams on the upper Mekong, controlling water flow. In 2019, when China blocked upstream water, downstream countries like Thailand and Cambodia suffered the worst droughts. This precedent clearly shows the threat Medog Dam poses to India and Bangladesh. India is trying to build counter dams but faces a costly and environmentally damaging ‘dam dilemma.’

Dams and Belt and Road: Expanding Influence Through Debt

China’s mega dam projects are deeply linked to President Xi Jinping’s global strategy, the ‘Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).’ The technology and capital accumulated from the Three Gorges Dam are now exported worldwide through BRI.

However, this often traps partner countries in a ‘debt trap.’ Laos became the ‘battery of Asia’ but ended up heavily indebted, and Ecuador had to sell oil assets cheaply to repay dam construction costs. This shows China’s consistent pattern of pursuing economic and strategic benefits through infrastructure.

Facing the River God: A Three-Step Response Strategy

The chance that China will halt the Medog Dam is slim. Climate change adds further risks. So how should downstream countries and the international community respond? What can we do amid this massive flow?

1. Monitor and expose. Use satellite technology to independently monitor dam activities and transparently publish data, like the Stimson Center’s ‘Mekong Dam Monitor,’ to apply international pressure.
2. Unite and strengthen legal frameworks. India and Bangladesh should unite to demand legally binding water-sharing treaties and push China diplomatically to join the UN Water Convention.
3. Invest in resilience. If China’s actions cannot be stopped, focus on mitigating impacts. This includes building counter dams, improving flood management, developing drought-resistant agriculture, and restoring delta ecosystems.

Conclusion: Stopping a No-Winner Game

China’s mega dam projects are not just energy or flood control ventures but complex geopolitical games. The key points are:

• Summary 1: China’s mega dams symbolize ambitions to control nature but come with a costly bill of severe ecological destruction and social sacrifice.
• Summary 2: The Medog Dam surpasses the Three Gorges Dam as the pinnacle of a ‘water hegemony’ strategy weaponizing water to control neighboring countries’ fates, potentially causing international disaster.
• Summary 3: Rather than military confrontation, transparent data disclosure, international legal pressure, and building downstream resilience are the most practical ways to face this huge challenge.

This issue no longer belongs to a single country or region. Rivers know no borders. I hope this article helps readers understand the seriousness of China’s mega dam problem and encourages reflection on the international community’s role for a sustainable future.