Cognitive Bias: Why We Chase Certain Feelings Over Accurate Information

The Invisible Force Controlling Your Brain Between Probability and Certainty

• Understand why we are drawn to certain lies rather than uncertain truths.
• Grasp the core cognitive biases (certainty effect, loss aversion, confirmation bias) that dominate our decisions.
• Learn concrete ways to embrace uncertainty and make better choices.

Prologue: Why Do We Prefer ‘Certain’ Lies Over ‘Uncertain’ Truths?

“What people want is not accurate information. What people want is certainty.” This statement may provoke resistance because we want to believe we are rational beings. But is that really the case? This article explores the psychological reasons why our brains are wired to fall into cognitive biases, dislike uncertainty, and obsess over certainty.

Imagine booking a dinner for a very special occasion.

• Restaurant A: 100 reviews, average rating 4.5 stars. Statistically a very low chance of failure, an excellent and reliable choice.
• Restaurant B: Only 3 reviews, but all perfect 5.0 scores.

Which one appeals to you more? Many feel a stronger attraction to Restaurant B, despite limited data, because it promises ‘perfection.’ This is an emotional choice, not a logical one, choosing the ‘feeling’ of certainty over the data of probability.

The Instinctive Pull Toward Certainty: Three Key Cognitive Biases

Our brain’s preference for certainty can be explained by several powerful psychological mechanisms known as cognitive biases.

1. Certainty Effect: The Overwhelming Temptation of 100%

The Certainty Effect is a cognitive bias where people irrationally overvalue outcomes that are certain compared to probabilistic ones.

Consider these two options:

• Option 1: Receive 1 billion KRW with 100% certainty. (Expected value: 1 billion KRW)
• Option 2: Receive 10 billion KRW with 20% probability, and nothing with 80% probability. (Expected value: 2 billion KRW)

Mathematically, Option 2 is twice as valuable, but most people instinctively prefer Option 1. This is because the ‘100%’ certainty outweighs the number ‘1 billion.’ By choosing Option 1, we eliminate the emotional pain of regret and buy psychological safety.

2. Loss Aversion: Pain of Losing Twice as Strong as Joy of Gaining

At the root of our preference for certainty lies the theory of Loss Aversion. Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman established that humans feel the pain of loss about twice as intensely as the pleasure of an equivalent gain.

Would you participate in a coin toss game where heads wins 150,000 KRW and tails loses 100,000 KRW? Although the expected value is a gain of 25,000 KRW, most refuse. The fear of losing 100,000 KRW outweighs the hope of winning 150,000 KRW.

I, too, have held onto losing stocks hoping “they will rise someday,” unable to sell. This is a classic example of loss aversion, avoiding the pain of realizing a loss. Loss aversion also creates a strong status quo bias, keeping us stuck in familiar situations rather than embracing change.

3. Confirmation Bias: The Prison of “I Knew It!” Certainty

While loss aversion drives us to seek certainty, confirmation bias helps us maintain and strengthen it. This bias is the tendency to seek information that confirms our existing beliefs and ignore contradictory evidence.

• Historical example: During the Pearl Harbor attack, Admiral Kimmel ignored numerous warnings that contradicted his belief that Japan was incapable of attacking, leading to disastrous consequences.
• Modern society: Social media’s ‘filter bubbles’ and ’echo chambers’ amplify confirmation bias, deepening political polarization. We surround ourselves with like-minded views and treat our beliefs as unquestionable truths.

These three cognitive biases reinforce each other, trapping us in a vicious cycle of the ‘prison of certainty.’

Comparison: Rational Brain vs. Real Brain

Let’s compare how our brain ideally operates versus how it behaves under cognitive biases.

Overcoming Cognitive Biases: Two Ways to Befriend Uncertainty

Relentless pursuit of certainty leads to stagnation. True innovation and growth begin when we embrace uncertainty.

1. Deliberately Seek Opposing Opinions Successful entrepreneurs constantly question their own thinking. Playing the ‘devil’s advocate’ in team meetings or habitually debating with people holding different views is the most effective way to break the cycle of confirmation bias.
2. Focus on the Process, Not the Outcome True confidence does not come from being 100% sure of every result. It comes from trusting yourself to handle whatever happens. Focus on the process of growth and maintaining your center amid change.

Ultimate freedom lies in becoming comfortable with uncertainty. This journey transforms our attitude toward the unknown from ‘fear’ to ‘curiosity.’

Conclusion

We crave certainty to understand a complex world, but this instinct often leads us away from better choices.

• Key points:

  1. Certainty Effect: We irrationally prefer 100% certain outcomes over probabilistically better options.
  2. Loss Aversion: We feel the pain of loss about twice as strongly as the joy of gain, causing us to avoid potential losses and miss greater opportunities.
  3. Confirmation Bias: We selectively accept information that supports our beliefs, imprisoning ourselves in certainty.

Call to Action: What is the ‘certainty’ you value most in your life right now? If you dare to turn the period at the end of that belief into a question mark, what new possibilities might open? Start today by intentionally reading an article that challenges your views.