Digital Twins Transforming the Future of Warfare

From the Ghosts of Bakhmut to Virtual Battlefields: Everything About Technology Replicating Reality

Digital twin technology, which replicates everything in the real world into virtual space, is shaking the paradigm of warfare from its roots. This article takes an in-depth look at how digital twins are redefining everything in the military domain—from a single soldier to entire battlefields and even competition between nations.

• The concept and operating principles of digital twins replicating soldiers, equipment, and battlefields
• ‘Decision dominance’ that changes the speed of war and the geopolitics of digital arms races
• New ethical and strategic risks caused by technology and future challenges

The Ghost of Bakhmut: The Soldier’s Digital Twin

In eastern Ukraine, at the dim dawn on the outskirts of the ruined city of Bakhmut, veteran scout Sergeant Oleksandr Kovalenko holds his breath, making final preparations toward enemy lines. His mission is simple but deadly: to verify new enemy supply routes and transmit coordinates.

However, in a command and control room located hundreds of kilometers away in an underground bunker, an operation of a completely different dimension is underway. What appears on the large screen is not just a satellite map but Sergeant Kovalenko’s ‘Humanoid Digital Twin (HDT)’.

This is a virtual avatar that replicates him in real time, composed of a vast collection of data.

• Biometric Data: Wearable sensors worn by Kovalenko transmit real-time biometric signals such as heart rate, body temperature, and stress levels. Operation planners monitor these numbers to predict when his physical limits might be reached.
• Past Mission Data: AI analyzes his shooting accuracy, endurance, and decision-making patterns under pressure accumulated from past training and combat.
• Biomechanical Model: A physics-based model simulates how newly issued equipment affects his stamina and injury risk over a 12-hour mission.

Commanders use this digital twin to conduct dozens of virtual rehearsals before the actual mission begins. In a virtual battlefield reconstructed in 3D from satellite and drone images, Kovalenko’s avatar tries various infiltration routes, responds to predicted enemy ambushes, and finds the optimal equipment combination. This identifies weaknesses in the operation plan without exposing a single soldier to danger.

This small operations room scene symbolically shows how the Russia-Ukraine war has become a massive testing ground for new technologies combining AI and space assets. Here, we witness a fundamental change in the nature of war. Whereas armies once sought to enhance soldiers’ capabilities through training and equipment, now each soldier is viewed as an analyzable system.

However, this technology raises profound ethical questions. A soldier’s most intimate biometric and psychological data embedded in a digital twin could become a lifelong ‘digital dog tag.’ Who owns this data after discharge, and could it be misused by enemies or commercial companies? Perhaps this technology risks reducing soldiers to a set of variables to optimize, accelerating the dehumanization of war.

What Is a Digital Twin? How It Differs from Simulation

To understand exactly what a digital twin is, we must first clarify how it differs from the commonly known ‘simulation.’ A digital twin is a digital replica of a physical asset or system in the real world, continuously updated with real-time data transmitted from the actual object.

Let’s explore this difference through a military analogy.

• Simulation: A flight simulator is a type of simulation. It is based on a generic model of an F-35 fighter jet, allowing pilots to practice “what could happen” in virtual scenarios. This model is static and not directly connected to any specific real aircraft.
• Digital Twin: In contrast, the digital twin of a specific F-35 fighter jet (tail number X) flying a real mission over the South China Sea is a completely different concept. This virtual fighter receives vast real-time data from thousands of sensors on the actual aircraft—engine temperature, fuel consumption, airframe fatigue, radar performance, and more. It shows exactly what is happening right now and predicts the next moment.

The key difference is that data flow is bidirectional: not only does data flow from the real aircraft to the virtual twin, but optimized information or commands from the virtual twin can be sent back to the real aircraft.

Digital twins are structured hierarchically like Lego blocks:

1. Component Twins: Virtually replicate each turbine blade of a jet engine.
2. Asset Twins: The entire jet engine, composed of multiple components, forms an ‘asset twin.’
3. System Twins: An F-35 fighter jet, combining the engine, avionics, and weapons systems, constitutes a ‘system twin.’
4. Process Twins: The operation of an entire airbase, including multiple jets, control towers, and logistics systems, is implemented as a ‘process twin.’

Simulation vs Digital Twin

Virtual Battlefields and JADC2: The Race for the God’s Eye View

Digital twin technology is advancing toward the ultimate goal of replicating the entire battlefield in real time—a ‘Virtual Battlespace.’ This is not just a 3D map but another world synchronized with reality, alive and breathing.

JADC2: The Neural Network of Modern Warfare

At the heart of this grand vision is the U.S. Department of Defense’s core concept: Joint All-Domain Command and Control (JADC2). JADC2 aims to connect all sensors and all strike assets across all domains—Army, Navy, Air Force, Space Force, Cyber Force—into one massive network.

The virtual battlespace is an essential foundation for implementing JADC2. A virtual world where every element of the battlefield is represented as a digital twin provides AI with perfect data to analyze and make decisions.

Compressing the OODA Loop: Superhuman Decision Speed

Victory in war often depends on the speed of the ‘OODA Loop’—Observe, Orient, Decide, Act. The side that cycles through this decision-making loop faster gains battlefield dominance.

Digital twins and AI compress this OODA Loop beyond human limits, creating a ‘Super OODA Loop.’

• Observe: Thousands of sensor data streams integrate in real time into the battlefield digital twin.
• Orient: AI analyzes the digital twin to identify enemy patterns and predict next moves.
• Decide: AI simulates various scenarios and recommends optimal courses of action to commanders.
• Act: The network automatically assigns missions to the most effective weapon systems to strike targets.

The ultimate goal is to achieve ‘Decision Dominance’—making better decisions before the enemy can perceive and respond, keeping them in a state of continuous confusion and paralysis.

However, this also creates new deadly vulnerabilities called ‘Cognitive Warfare.’ Enemies no longer need to destroy friendly tanks physically; they can subtly manipulate data fed into digital twins. By injecting distorted data, friendly AI may chase illusions, attack allies, or ignore real threats.

Digital Engineering: Weapons Born in the Virtual World

Digital twins go beyond replicating battlefields—they enable ‘digital engineering,’ revolutionizing the entire lifecycle of military equipment from design and production to maintenance.

Case 1: B-21 Raider—The Birth of the Invisible Bomber

The B-21 Raider, called the world’s first 6th-generation aircraft, was born entirely in a digital environment. Northrop Grumman repeatedly tested thousands of designs through computer simulations before cutting any metal. This digital twin approach allowed rapid identification and correction of issues early in development, drastically reducing time and cost compared to the B-2 bomber.

Case 2: F-35—Taming a $158 Billion Fighter

To manage the astronomical maintenance costs of the F-35 program, every F-35 has its own ‘structural digital twin.’ AI analyzes this twin’s data to perform predictive maintenance, forecasting part failures before they occur. This enables proactive repairs, reducing downtime and saving huge costs.

Case 3: Europe’s Digital Front—Allied Competition

This transformation is not limited to the U.S. The UK, Italy, and Japan’s jointly developed ‘Tempest’ fighter and France’s ‘Scorpion’ armored vehicle modernization program also center digital twins as core technology.

However, this digital-first approach raises long-term issues of ’technology dependency’ and ‘data ownership.’ Companies building and managing digital twins for specific weapon platforms gain immense power over the platform’s entire lifecycle, complicating alliances.

Avatar Soldiers and the Future of Human-Machine Teams

Returning to the smallest unit on the battlefield—the soldier. When I first encountered the concept of Humanoid Digital Twins (HDT), it felt like a scene from a sci-fi movie. But it is already becoming reality.

Hyper-Personalized Training and Virtual Reality Rehearsals

HDT analyzes each soldier’s learning speed, biometric responses, strengths, and weaknesses to provide highly personalized training programs. By implementing digital twins of actual operational areas scanned by drones and satellites into VR/AR environments, soldiers can effectively “train on target” without leaving base.

Data-Driven Squad Command

Commanders use ‘squad dashboards’ to objectively monitor fatigue, stress levels, and mission readiness sent by soldiers’ digital twins, enabling data-based command decisions.

Birth of Human-Machine Teams

Moreover, HDTs become the key interface integrating human soldiers into autonomous system networks. A soldier’s digital twin transmits his intent and status in real time to robotic “team members.” The U.S. Army’s ‘Project Convergence’ already experiments with soldiers teaming up with robotic mules and reconnaissance robot dogs.

In these ‘Human-Machine Teams,’ humans make final judgments while machines undertake dangerous and strenuous tasks. This marks a shift from ‘human-in-the-loop,’ where humans control everything directly, to ‘human-on-the-loop,’ supervising autonomous machines.

However, this deep integration risks the dangerous trap of ‘automation bias.’ If AI always proposes the ‘optimal’ course of action, soldiers may lose their ability to make independent judgments.

New Geopolitics: The Digital Twin Arms Race

Digital twin technology acts as a geopolitical variable reshaping the balance of power between nations. The ability to develop and operate digital warfare technology itself becomes a new measure of national power.

• U.S. and NATO: Leading the construction of unified, interoperable systems encompassing allies through JADC2, aiming for an open and coalition-based model.
• China’s ‘Intelligentized Warfare’: Pursuing a strong centralized state-led approach, integrating military and civilian technologies under the ‘Battleverse’ concept.
• Russia’s Asymmetric Approach: Focusing less on cutting-edge tech development and more on threatening the data integrity of Western networked digital twin systems through information and cyber warfare.

This competition deepens the ‘Digital Twin Gap’ between countries and could lead to a new form of ‘Virtual Colonialism,’ where dominant powers impose technological dependency on allies through overwhelming platforms.

The Paradox of Perfect War: Risks of Digital Twins

Behind the promise of efficient and precise warfare lies a paradox: perfection itself can increase danger.

Fragile Sword: Cybersecurity Threats

A digital twin connecting the entire battlefield becomes a massive attack surface. If an enemy injects false data (data integrity attacks) or seizes control of the system (system takeover), catastrophic consequences may follow.

Escalation Engine: Risk of Miscalculation

If digital twin simulations predict a ‘clean and quick victory,’ leaders may underestimate war’s uncertainties and be tempted to enter conflicts rashly. Using digital twins in nuclear scenarios could dangerously lower the threshold for nuclear use in crises.

Moral Hazard: Gamification of War

When war is commanded through virtual battlefields resembling video games, ethical concerns arise that commanders may become desensitized to the horrific real-world consequences.

Conclusion

Digital twins are a powerful tool that will change the future of warfare but also carry new risks. The key lies not in the technology itself but in how we use this powerful ‘mirror of reality.’

• Personalized War: Digital twins have the potential to optimize individual soldiers and reduce casualties through virtual rehearsals.
• War of Speed: Replicating the entire battlefield in real time and analyzing it with AI enables decision-making at speeds beyond human limits.
• Invisible War: Cognitive warfare through cyberattacks and data manipulation becomes central, and technological gaps may spark new geopolitical conflicts.

Ultimately, we must be wary of the paradox that technology designed to clear the ‘fog of war’ may instead create a thicker ‘fog of certainty’ that makes us falsely believe we know everything. Do you think this technology will accelerate the dehumanization of war, or will it become a tool to save lives?