The Truth Behind Rumors of Xi Jinping's Downfall: Gossip and Cracks in Power

Rumors, Crisis, and the Secret Drama at the Heart of Power

• Understand how the rumor of Xi Jinping’s downfall originated and spread.
• Grasp the reality of the severe economic and social crises currently facing China.
• Explore the structural vulnerabilities of Xi Jinping’s one-man rule and future scenarios.

Whispers of a Coup: The Origin of Xi Jinping Downfall Rumors

In September 2022, a wave of unconfirmed rumors spread on Twitter claiming that President Xi Jinping had been ousted in a coup, sparked by mass cancellations of flights to Beijing and sightings of military vehicle convoys. Have you heard these rumors?

The main sources of these Xi Jinping downfall rumors were Falun Gong-affiliated media critical of the Chinese Communist Party and anti-China YouTubers. Their sensational narratives simplified complex Chinese politics into a “power struggle” drama, fueling public curiosity and generating high viewership.

An incident where an Indian news channel mistakenly reported a German journalist’s satirical tweet as “exclusive evidence of a coup” illustrates how uncritically these rumors were consumed.

The Chinese government’s response has consistently been silence and control. Instead of directly denying the rumors, the only rebuttal was broadcasting footage of Xi Jinping appearing at official events days later. Under Xi’s era, decision-making has become more opaque, and high-ranking officials disappearing without explanation has become common.

Ultimately, Xi Jinping’s extreme secrecy creates an information vacuum, which ironically becomes fertile ground for rumors like a “secret coup” to grow.

Signs of Cracks: Pressures Fueling the Rumors

While the coup rumors themselves may be fake news, their recurring vitality stems from the real crises facing Chinese society.

Empty Apartments and Unemployed Youth: Deep Ills of China’s Economy

Apartments bought with a lifetime of savings stand as empty shells, and graduates from prestigious universities struggle with severe unemployment—this is today’s reality in China. The real estate sector, once accounting for 30% of GDP, is in collapse, and local government debt has surpassed $10 trillion.

The Xi administration’s solution—state-led expansion of manufacturing investment—has created a new problem of “excess in everything.” Overproduced goods flood overseas markets at low prices, intensifying trade wars, while domestically, deflationary pressures mount.

At the root lies Xi Jinping’s ideological dilemma. He is wary of a “welfare state model” that would boost domestic consumption and instead prioritizes “national security” and state-owned enterprise-led growth. This policy contradiction—building more factories instead of filling households’ pockets—fuels social unrest and feeds rumors of instability at the top leadership.

The White Paper Rebellion: A Society Pushed to Its Limits

In November 2022, a fire in a Urumqi apartment ignited public outrage suppressed for three years under harsh “zero COVID” policies.

Protests escalated from cries of “Give us food” to direct political slogans like “Xi Jinping step down! Communist Party step down!” The “white paper protests,” where demonstrators held up blank sheets of paper to resist censorship, gained worldwide attention.

The government swiftly abandoned the zero COVID policy but framed it as a planned transition rather than yielding to protests. This event revealed cracks in the tacit social contract of “sacrificing political freedom for economic growth.” It showed that even absolute power can be vulnerable to popular pressure, lending realism to the downfall rumors.

Inside the Black Box: The Drama of Xi Jinping’s Court

The greatest threat may not be external rumors but internal power struggles. The most symbolic event, in my view, was the removal of Hu Jintao.

The Elder and the Red Folder: Hu Jintao’s Removal

At the closing ceremony of the Party Congress in October 2022, former President Hu Jintao was almost forcibly removed by two men, a shocking scene.

Chinese state media explained it as a “health issue,” but many analysts interpreted it as a deliberately staged public purge. It marked the end of the “collective leadership” era and symbolized the dawn of Xi Jinping’s one-man rule.

Vanished Ministers: A System Devouring Itself

Qin Gang, Minister of Foreign Affairs, and Li Shangfu, Minister of Defense and Central Military Commission member—both personally appointed by Xi Jinping—disappeared suddenly. This fact is crucial.

The repeated disappearance of officials personally chosen by Xi on charges such as corruption reveals flaws in Xi’s judgment and system—a self-inflicted wound.

Xi’s system demands absolute loyalty, yet even those who pass this loyalty test are not safe. The demand for absolute loyalty paradoxically becomes the greatest source of instability, corroding his regime from within.

At the Crossroads: Future Scenarios for China

What lies ahead for China? Two major scenarios can be envisioned.

Scenario A: Prolonged Rule

Xi Jinping continues his long-term rule. Central to this is the dynamic between Premier Li Qiang and Party Office Director Cai Qi, dubbed the “Emperor’s Two Hands.”

• Li Qiang (Premier): A pro-business pragmatist managing the economy but with deliberately limited authority. Could become a scapegoat if failures occur.
• Cai Qi (Director of Central Party Office): Oversees party ideology and security, wielding immense power.

Xi designed a “checks and balances with Chinese Communist Party characteristics” system, pitting these two loyal networks against each other to secure his prolonged rule.

Scenario B: Life After Xi – Succession Crisis

What happens when Xi Jinping is gone? He destroyed orderly power succession by not naming a successor, placing China on a “political succession crisis” time bomb.

The moment he disappears, factions he nurtured and set against each other will fiercely fight for the “dragon throne,” likely leading to unpredictable chaos.

Conclusion

All this analysis leads to a grand paradox: Xi Jinping’s power consolidation measures are actually undermining the stability of China’s system.

• Key Point 1: Rumors of Xi’s downfall are baseless, but China’s severe economic and social crises nourish these rumors.
• Key Point 2: The greatest threat is internal power struggles, and the loyalty-demanding system amplifies internal instability.
• Key Point 3: Xi’s personalization of power effectively sets the stage for intense power struggles and systemic crises after his departure.

Today’s stability, by his own design, inevitably breeds an unstable tomorrow. Perhaps it’s time to think more deeply about China’s future and keep a close eye on related news.