The Aftermath of Brexit: Why Is the UK Knocking on Europe's Door Again?

An in-depth analysis of how the UK is redefining its relationship with the EU amid economic and geopolitical crises after Brexit.

• The real impact of Brexit on the UK economy
• How geopolitical crises (Ukraine war, Trump) changed the UK’s foreign policy
• The effect of the UK’s ’nuclear card’ on resetting relations with the EU

Eight Years After Brexit: The Shadow of Regret

In a pub in Grimsby, a northeastern English port city, the evening fog begins to settle. Arthur, 58, who runs a small seafood processing factory, fiddles with his beer glass, lost in thought. Grimsby was a place that overwhelmingly voted for Brexit, the UK’s departure from the European Union (EU), in the 2016 referendum. Arthur was one of them. But now, eight years later, a bitter new term lingers in his mind: ‘Bregret’, a blend of Brexit and regret.

Arthur sighs to a friend, complaining about the soaring electricity bills for running his factory’s freezer and the rising cost of a pint of beer. This is just one facet of the chronic inflation weighing on the UK economy. A bigger problem is shipping smoked fish to his long-time French clients. Before Brexit, sending goods to London was no different, but now he faces mountains of paperwork and customs procedures. The promised ‘rosy future’ of Brexit has turned into a harsh reality. I vividly remember watching the vote count in 2016, hoping against hope.

At that moment, the pub’s TV shows joint military exercises between British and French forces. Amid daily news of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the unpredictable US president, Arthur, who voted to leave Europe, ironically feels a strange sense of relief watching this. This scene hints at the core tension of this article: how economic isolation and geopolitical crises are pulling the UK back into Europe’s orbit.

A Divided Kingdom: Causes and Consequences of Brexit

The Brexit Vote: What Divided the UK?

On June 23, 2016, the UK voted to leave the EU by a narrow margin of 51.9% to 48.1%. This decision was not simply a reaction to immigration but revealed deep, long-standing fractures within British society.

The vote split sharply along lines of education, income, age, and social status. Lower-income, older, and less-educated voters tended to support leaving, reflecting decades of pent-up anger from those who felt ’left behind.’ Former industrial heartlands like Grimsby, known as the ‘Red Wall’ regions, had been in decline. Meanwhile, the southeast around London prospered on finance and services. This stark regional imbalance fostered a sense of being ‘globalization’s losers,’ fueling resentment toward Brussels’ elite bureaucracy.

Immigration intensified these grievances. Since 2004, many Eastern European countries joined the EU, bringing low-wage workers to the UK, which heightened anxieties in struggling regions already suffering job shortages and public service decline. The Leave campaign’s slogan “Take Back Control” was powerful, tapping into a desire to reject being a cog in the EU machine and to reclaim the sovereignty and glory of the British Empire.

The Harsh Price of ‘Sovereignty’: Economic Impact of Brexit

The cost of ’taking back control’ has been steep. The UK economy has faced ongoing challenges post-Brexit, directly affecting small business owners like Arthur.

Trade Barriers and Investment Decline

The Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) between the UK and EU removed most tariffs but created new ’non-tariff barriers’. Complex customs paperwork, rules of origin, and sanitary inspections imposed new administrative costs and delays on Arthur’s factory. Many small EU clients dropped business due to these hassles. In the first year after Brexit, the diversity of UK exports to the EU fell by 30%. The UK Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) projected a long-term 4% GDP drop and 15% decline in trade volume due to Brexit.

Inflation and Labor Shortages

Brexit worsened the UK’s chronic inflation. Supply chain complexities and a weaker pound raised import prices, making the UK one of the advanced economies with the highest inflation. The end of free movement of EU citizens caused severe labor shortages in transport, hospitality, and food processing sectors.

The Northern Ireland Issue

Northern Ireland posed the most complex challenge. To avoid a hard border between UK Northern Ireland and EU member Ireland, the ‘Northern Ireland Protocol’ kept Northern Ireland in parts of the EU single market. This created a de facto customs border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK, sparking serious political conflict. Eventually, the UK and EU sought practical solutions through the ‘Windsor Framework.’

The economic fallout from Brexit contradicted promises of ‘sovereignty’ and ‘prosperity,’ instead causing friction and loss of competitiveness. The weakened economy heightened the UK’s geopolitical isolation, pressuring a fundamental rethink of foreign policy.

Turning Crisis into Opportunity: Strategic Shift in Post-Brexit UK

Geopolitical Storms: Russia and the US Variables

The optimistic worldview underpinning Brexit shattered under two external shocks.

First, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 fundamentally altered Europe’s security landscape. For the UK, this war starkly reminded that conventional great power conflict had returned to the continent. Geographic separation from Europe lost strategic meaning.

Second, the shadow of ‘America First’ policy under Donald Trump and his possible return raised serious doubts about the US security guarantee that had underpinned European defense for 75 years. Trump criticized NATO allies for under-spending on defense and shook the collective defense clause (Article 5). This sparked urgent calls within Europe for independent ‘strategic autonomy’ from Washington.

In this context, the UK’s initial Brexit strategy of ‘Global Britain’ seemed out of touch. Trade deals with New Zealand became less urgent than North Atlantic security plans.

The UK’s Bold Move: Using the Nuclear Card to Reclaim a Central Role in European Security

Cornered strategically, the UK made a bold offer to Europe. This was a high-stakes move to reset relations with the EU and regain influence on the international stage.

At the heart was the ‘Northwood Declaration,’ the first-ever agreement between the UK and France to coordinate their independent nuclear deterrents. The UK declared its nuclear forces protect Europe from “extreme threats,” effectively offering a nuclear umbrella to the EU. It was like a star player who left the team proposing to cooperate again using their unique skills in a critical match.

The UK’s move has multiple layers:

1. Return as a Key Player: Bypassing economic weakness post-Brexit, the UK leverages its unique status as Europe’s only nuclear power besides France to rejoin the highest security decision-making table.
2. Real Security Enhancement: Strengthening Europe’s deterrence against Russia and uncertainty from the US directly benefits UK security.
3. Foundation for a New Relationship: Washing away Brexit bitterness to build a positive UK-EU relationship based on shared security interests.

If you were a European leader, how would you evaluate this offer? In Germany, voices are emerging for nuclear sharing discussions with the UK and France to complement the US nuclear umbrella, signaling a tectonic shift in European security policy.

In conclusion, the UK’s nuclear card cleverly turned its post-Brexit economic weakness into military strength, transforming a narrative of isolation and decline into one of power and indispensability.

After Brexit: Toward a New Partnership

From Conflict to Practical Cooperation

With security as a new focal point, UK-EU relations have moved beyond old conflicts toward practical cooperation. The breakthrough came with the resolution of the Northern Ireland issue through the Windsor Framework.

Building on this, initiatives like youth exchange programs, simplified trade procedures for certain goods, and UK participation in the EU’s Horizon Europe research program have been launched. This represents a new form of ‘structured partnership’ far from the hard break envisioned by Brexit hardliners. The UK is reconnected to the EU’s core political and economic union from outside, through security, research, and select economic sectors.

Back to Arthur’s story: he reads in the newspaper about the recent simplification of food export procedures. While it won’t turn back the clock to pre-Brexit days, it could help him maintain his long-standing French client relationships.

Conclusion: The Long Shadow of Brexit and a New Path Forward

One year later, Arthur sits again in that pub. His business remains tough, but new agreements with the EU have eased the strain. On TV, the UK Prime Minister stands alongside French and German leaders discussing European security.

This scene encapsulates the UK’s post-Brexit journey. The grand dream of ‘Global Britain’ has been replaced by the reality that 21st-century security and prosperity are a ’team sport’ no one can achieve alone.

The key takeaways from this article are:

1. Economic Reality: Brexit deepened economic hardship and social division, contrary to its promises.
2. Geopolitical Shift: Russia’s invasion and US uncertainty pushed the UK from isolation toward security cooperation with Europe.
3. Strategic Reset: The UK is leveraging its nuclear deterrent to reset relations with the EU and seek a new ‘structured partnership.’

Having left the European family table, the UK now feels the need to rejoin the neighborhood watch. What does the UK’s case suggest to us? For deeper insights into Europe’s evolving landscape and its impact on the Korean Peninsula, I recommend reading the related article: [The Future of the European Union and Strategic Autonomy].