The Most Certain Evidence That the Future Is Unknowable: The Huge Signals All Experts Missed

The One Lesson History Teaches Us

Introduction: The One Lesson History Teaches Us

Morgan Housel’s latest work, Same as Ever, poses a provocative and fundamental question:

“Looking back at the past, we realize that the future is unknowable.”

What do you think of this statement? Some might say it’s obvious, while others might ask, “Isn’t some prediction possible?” But this is not just philosophical musing or humility. It is the most practical and powerful insight for understanding life, investing, and all changes in the world.

The goal of this article is to prove how true this proposition is by examining the last 20 years of history that we have all experienced. We will look at how the world’s smartest experts, analysts armed with massive data, and CEOs who controlled markets dramatically failed at predicting the future. Not to mock them, but to gain better wisdom from their failures and our collective blindness.

We will soon realize that efforts to predict specific events are futile. Instead, focusing on unchanging human behaviors—greed and fear, opportunity, and the power of compelling stories—is the wiser path. The future is always uncertain and full of surprises, and the greatest risks always come from where we cannot see.

Now, shall we take a time travel? To see how little we knew about the future.

Part 1: The ‘Keyboard-less Phone’ That the World Mocked

2007: The Era When Nokia Ruled the World

Let’s go back to 2007. What phone did you have in your hand? Many probably used phones with physical keyboards that clicked when pressed. At that time, the world belonged to Nokia. Nokia’s Symbian OS smartphones held about 40% of the global market. For businesspeople, BlackBerry’s QWERTY keyboard was a symbol of success. This was the ‘reality’ and unquestioned ‘common sense’ then. The pinnacle of technology seemed to be faster and more accurate physical keyboards.

The ‘Experts’ Predictions That Spoiled Like Milk

That same year, Apple announced the iPhone. A historic scene unfolded. Steve Ballmer, then CEO of Microsoft—the world’s largest software company—burst into laughter when asked about the iPhone in an interview.

He couldn’t hold back and said, “$500? That’s the most expensive phone in the world. Business customers will never buy it because it has no keyboard.”

Looking back, it sounds absurd, but his argument was very logical at the time. Market share, consumer surveys, sales data—all statistics supported his claim. He wasn’t foolish; he simply predicted the future based on existing data. His prediction perfectly symbolizes our collective failure to imagine a ‘different future.’

The $1,400 Trillion Ghost Nobody Expected

The story doesn’t end with Ballmer being wrong. The real point is that no one—not even Apple—predicted the true scale of the revolution this small device would bring. The real revolution wasn’t the ‘phone’ itself. The App Store, which didn’t even exist at the iPhone’s launch and was added quietly later, was the game changer. What started as a minor feature became a giant that swallowed the world.

Let’s look at the data on this unpredictable explosion.

App Store Ecosystem Economic Value Growth

What created this massive economic ecosystem? Areas people didn’t even think needed apps: online shopping, food delivery, travel booking, ride-hailing. No one in 2007 imagined calling a taxi, ordering dinner, or booking accommodations worldwide from a small device in their pocket.

The Invisible Truth: Trojan Horses and the Power of Stories

Here we learn a deeper lesson beyond failed predictions.

First, the biggest innovations often come disguised. The iPhone was not just a new phone; it was a ‘Trojan horse’ carrying a completely new economy. People thought they wanted a better phone, but what they really craved was an all-in-one platform in their pocket.

Early debates were one-dimensional—‘Does it have a keyboard?’ ‘Is it expensive?’ But the secondary and tertiary effects were unimaginable. The App Store created a software market (secondary effect), which then disrupted taxis, hotels, retail, and even dating industries (tertiary effect). Future shocks come from far beyond a product’s initial purpose.

Second, statistics always bow before stories. Morgan Housel emphasizes that stories are always stronger than statistics. Ballmer focused on statistics saying ‘people want physical keyboards.’ But Apple and developers sold a powerful story: ‘These apps can change your life this way.’ The narrative of convenience, connection, and enjoyment was far more persuasive than any market share report in 2007. Stories create new realities that old data cannot explain. This is a pattern history repeats. Human desire for a better life and stories always make current statistical models obsolete.

Part 2: The Calm Before the Storm: 2008, When Optimism Ruled the World

The Era of Unshakable Belief

Now let’s move a bit forward to the mid-2000s. Do you remember the atmosphere? Low interest rates and endless economic growth optimism dominated. In the U.S., the belief that ‘house prices never fall’ was almost religious. This was not just vague public hope; the entire global financial system designed by Wall Street’s smartest minds was built on this belief.

The ‘Invisible’ Risk: Financial Weapons of Mass Destruction

At the center of this belief was the ‘subprime mortgage.’ Loans were given liberally even to low-credit borrowers, but no one worried because Wall Street ‘geniuses’ sliced and diced these risky loans into safe, profitable financial products called ‘Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs).’ They either didn’t realize or ignored that they hadn’t eliminated risk but cleverly hid it.

Wall Street was a place overflowing with greed and arrogance. Bankers were hailed as icons of innovation, and million-dollar bonuses were seen as deserved rewards for their genius. This perfectly illustrates Morgan Housel’s timeless human nature: greed, overconfidence, and collective madness.

Inevitable Collapse and Unpredictable Echoes

The seemingly endless party ended. When house prices fell, everything collapsed like dominoes: house price drop → surge in loan defaults → CDO value collapse → global financial system paralysis. Millions lost homes and jobs.

But what was truly unpredictable was what happened next. Financial experts’ economic models might have predicted GDP drops or unemployment rates, but no model foresaw the 2011 ‘Occupy Wall Street’ movement that began in a New York park three years later. Who could have imagined a financial crisis rooted in complex derivatives would spark a social movement with tents and chants of “We are the 99%”? People’s anger stemmed not just from losing money but from feeling betrayed by the top 1%.

The Invisible Truth: The Paradox of Expertise and Social Contagion

The 2008 crisis teaches us another deep lesson.

First, the paradox of expertise. The crisis wasn’t due to lack of expertise but an oversupply of narrow, selfish expertise. The engineers who designed complex financial products were geniuses, but their genius focused on maximizing short-term profits and hiding risks, not understanding systemic vulnerabilities. This shows that expertise without wisdom and a holistic view can be more dangerous than ignorance.

A one-dimensional view says ‘people took bad loans.’ A two-dimensional insight says ’the system encouraged this behavior by dispersing responsibility through complex products.’ The three-dimensional truth is that this ’expert-driven’ system sparked a massive moral and social backlash (Occupy Wall Street) that questioned the legitimacy of modern capitalism itself—far beyond any financial prediction.

Second, financial contagion breeds social contagion. The financial crisis was a contagion within the financial system, but soon the powerful emotion of ‘anger’ spread worldwide. The spark in New York led to Spain’s ‘Indignados’ movement and global social contagion. Financial models could calculate economic shocks like unemployment or GDP loss but could not predict the emotional and political reactions triggered. History shows that massive economic events create unpredictable emotional and political vacuums.

Part 3: The World on January 1, 2020: What Were the Smartest People Worried About?

The ‘Official Future’ Experts Talked About

Now our time travel reaches the most dramatic case. Let’s go to January 1, 2020. What were we and the world’s smartest experts worried about then? Reviewing economic outlook reports from IMF, KDI, and other major institutions reveals a surprisingly consistent picture. Their main concerns were:

• Escalation of US-China trade disputes
• Economic slowdown in Europe centered on Germany
• Uncertainty around Brexit
• Overall mild global growth slowdown, but cautious optimism for recovery in 2020

This was the ‘official future’ of the world on the eve of 2020.

The One Word Missing from Every Report

Here lies the core of the story. There was one chilling word missing from all these thick expert reports: ‘Pandemic.’ This is the most perfect and chilling proof of Morgan Housel’s statement, “Risk is What You Don’t See.” This massive event that changed 21st-century human life was not on anyone’s radar until just weeks before it struck.

The Great Acceleration: A Decade of Change in One Year

The COVID-19 pandemic didn’t just add new risk; it acted as a massive ‘catalyst’ that explosively accelerated existing trends. Digital transformation projects planned over years were completed in months worldwide.

The most representative example is ‘remote work.’ It wasn’t gradual change but a revolution overnight. Remote work, once limited to a few IT companies, became the daily reality for hundreds of millions globally. This massive social experiment has created new unpredictable aftershocks—social tensions between employees seeking flexibility and companies worried about productivity.

The Invisible Truth: Black Swans and Forcing Functions

This pandemic experience teaches us two fundamental truths about the future.

First, history is shaped by ‘Black Swans.’ Statistician Nassim Taleb’s ‘Black Swan’ refers to extremely rare but massively impactful unpredictable events. While experts busied themselves modeling the known risk of trade wars, the real tsunami quietly formed beyond the horizon.

The primary event was the virus’s emergence. The secondary was global lockdowns and economic paralysis. But the true history-changing tertiary effect is the permanent change in how we work, shop, learn, and communicate: normalization of remote work, transition to a ‘digital-first’ society, and deepening digital divides and labor market polarization.

Second, crises act as ‘forcing functions.’ The pandemic gave us no choice. It forced companies to adopt remote work, consumers online, and governments to unprecedented economic stimulus. Progress is not always gradual; sometimes unexpected crises push us forward forcibly. Before 2020, remote work was a privilege for a few; the crisis made it the default. We will wrestle with the unpredictable consequences of this forced experiment for at least a decade.

Conclusion: How Should We Live in an Unpredictable World?

So far, we have reviewed three major historical turning points. Experts with all the data missed the true disruptive power of the keyboard-less phone, failed to predict the social anger from the financial crisis, and were blind to the pandemic that stopped humanity. The common thread is clear: specific predictions about the future are impossible and even pointless.

Then how should we live? If prediction is foolish, what is the wise alternative? Morgan Housel offers very practical guidance.

1. Invest in preparedness, not prediction. Californians believe a major earthquake will happen ‘someday,’ but not when or where. So instead of spending on prediction, they invest in sturdy buildings and emergency systems—preparation. The same applies to life. Preparing for imaginable risks protects you; unimagined risks will catch you off guard. That’s why saving what seems ’too much’ is actually appropriate. Safety margins should always be generously secured.
2. Focus on what doesn’t change. Specific events are unpredictable, but human behavior patterns are remarkably consistent. People will still react to greed and fear, seize opportunities, avoid uncertainty, and be captivated by powerful stories 50 years from now. Jeff Bezos focused not on “What will change in 10 years?” but “What won’t change in 10 years?” He believed customers’ desire for lower prices and faster delivery would never change and built his empire on that belief. Understanding human nature is a far more useful compass than predicting the future.
3. Let pessimism and optimism coexist within you. The best strategy is to “save like a pessimist and invest like an optimist.” Plan pessimistically enough to survive short-term crises, so you can dream optimistically enough to enjoy long-term growth. Survival is the prerequisite for everything.

There is no need to fear future uncertainty. Instead, we can be free from it. Once we accept that the future is unknowable, we stop wasting energy on futile predictions and focus on what we can truly control: building a strong, flexible, and resilient life here and now. So we can endure the crises the unpredictable future throws at us and seize the hidden opportunities within.