The Truth Behind Rumors of Xi Jinping's Downfall: Gossip and Cracks in Power

Rumors, Crisis, and the Secret Drama at the Heart of Power

• Understand how the rumors of Xi Jinping’s downfall originated and spread.
• Grasp the reality of the severe economic and social crises currently facing China.
• Explore the structural vulnerabilities of Xi’s one-man rule and future scenarios.

Whispers of a Coup: The Origin of Xi Jinping Downfall Rumors

In September 2022, unconfirmed rumors spread that numerous flights to Beijing were canceled and military vehicle convoys were spotted, sparking heated discussions on Twitter claiming Chairman Xi Jinping had been ousted in a coup. Have you heard these rumors?

The main sources of these Xi Jinping downfall rumors were media outlets affiliated with Falun Gong critical of the Chinese Communist Party and anti-China YouTubers. Their sensational narratives simplified complex Chinese politics into a “power struggle” drama, piquing public curiosity and generating high viewership.

An incident where an Indian news channel mistakenly reported a German journalist’s satirical tweet as “exclusive proof of a coup” illustrates how uncritically these rumors were consumed.

The Chinese government’s response has consistently been silence and control. Instead of directly denying the rumors, the only rebuttal was broadcasting footage of Xi Jinping appearing at official events days later. Under Xi’s era, decision-making has become more opaque, and high-ranking officials frequently disappear without explanation.

Ultimately, Xi’s extreme secrecy creates an information vacuum, which ironically becomes fertile ground for rumors like a “secret coup” to flourish.

Signs of Cracks: Pressures Fueling the Rumors

While the coup rumors themselves may be fake news, their periodic resurgence is rooted in the real crises facing Chinese society.

Empty Apartments and Unemployed Youth: Deep Ills of China’s Economy

Apartments bought with a lifetime of savings stand as empty shells, and graduates from prestigious universities struggle with severe unemployment—this is today’s China. The real estate sector, once 30% of GDP, is in collapse, and local government debt has surpassed $10 trillion.

Xi’s government solution of state-led expansion of manufacturing investment has created a new problem of “overcapacity.” Excess products flood overseas markets at low prices, intensifying trade wars, while domestically causing deflationary pressures.

At the root lies Xi’s ideological dilemma: he distrusts a “welfare state model” that boosts domestic consumption and prioritizes “national security” and state-owned enterprise–centered growth. This policy contradiction—building more factories instead of filling households’ pockets—fuels social unrest and nurtures rumors of unstable top leadership.

The White Paper Rebellion: A Society Pushed to Its Limits

In November 2022, a deadly apartment fire in Urumqi ignited public outrage suppressed by three years of harsh “zero COVID” policies.

Protests escalated from cries for “food” to direct political slogans like “Xi Jinping step down! Communist Party step down!” The “white paper protests,” where demonstrators held up blank sheets to resist censorship, gained worldwide attention.

The government swiftly abandoned the zero COVID policy but framed it as a planned shift rather than a concession to protests. This event revealed cracks in the implicit social contract of “political freedom traded for economic growth,” showing that even absolute power is vulnerable to popular pressure, lending credibility to the downfall rumors.

Inside the Black Box: Drama at Xi Jinping’s Court

The greatest threat may not be external rumors but internal power struggles. The most symbolic event, in my view, was the removal of Hu Jintao.

The Elder and the Red Folder: Hu Jintao’s Removal

At the closing ceremony of the Party Congress in October 2022, former Chairman Hu Jintao was almost forcibly escorted out by two men, a shocking scene.

State media cited “health reasons,” but many analysts interpreted it as a deliberately staged public purge. It marked the end of the “collective leadership” era and symbolized the dawn of Xi Jinping’s one-man rule.

Disappearing Ministers: A System Devouring Itself

Qin Gang, Minister of Foreign Affairs, and Li Shangfu, Minister of Defense and Central Military Commission member—both personally appointed by Xi—suddenly vanished.

Their disappearances amid corruption and other allegations highlight a ‘self-inflicted wound’ revealing flaws in Xi’s judgment and system.

Xi’s system demands absolute loyalty, yet even those who pass this test are not safe. The demand for absolute loyalty paradoxically becomes the greatest source of instability eating away at his regime from within.

At a Crossroads: Future Scenarios for China

What lies ahead for China? Two major scenarios emerge.

Scenario A: Prolonged Rule

Xi Jinping continues his long-term rule. Central to this is the dynamic between Premier Li Qiang and Party Office Director Cai Qi, dubbed the “Emperor’s Two Hands.”

• Li Qiang (Premier): A pro-business pragmatist managing the economy but deliberately limited in power; potentially a scapegoat if things go wrong.
• Cai Qi (Director of Central Party Office): Oversees party ideology and security with immense power.

Xi designed a “checks and balances with Chinese Communist Party characteristics” system, pitting these loyal networks against each other to secure his prolonged rule.

Scenario B: Life After Xi – Succession Crisis

What happens when Xi is gone? By refusing to name a successor, he has placed China on a “political succession crisis” time bomb.

The moment he departs, factions he nurtured and set against each other will fiercely compete for the “dragon’s throne,” likely triggering unpredictable chaos.

Conclusion

All this analysis leads to a grand paradox: Xi’s power consolidation measures are actually undermining the stability of China’s system.

• Key Point 1: The rumors of Xi’s downfall are baseless, but China’s severe economic and social crises nourish these rumors.
• Key Point 2: The greatest threat is not external but internal power struggles; the loyalty-demanding system amplifies internal instability.
• Key Point 3: Xi’s personalization of power effectively guarantees intense power struggles and systemic crises after his departure.

Today’s stability, by his own design, inevitably breeds an unstable tomorrow. Perhaps it is time to think more deeply about China’s future and keep a close eye on related news.