Why Does Technological Progress Always Feel Slower Than Expected?

We were promised flying cars, but reality seems limited to social media and smartphones improving little by little every year. This article explores not the speed of technological progress, but the limits of our brain’s linear perception of exponential change.

• The fundamental psychological reasons why technological progress feels slow
• The five stages of the ‘Gartner Hype Cycle’ that every new technology goes through
• Three mental tools to effectively cope with an uncertain future

We were promised flying cars, personal jetpacks, and utopian future cities. But reality seems to be endless social media debates and smartphones that improve just a bit every year. This feeling of technological stagnation is familiar to all of us. True breakthroughs that change the world always seem just around the corner, yet never quite within reach. But what if this disappointment is actually a huge illusion?

This article is about that very illusion. The problem is not the speed of technological progress, but the limit of our perception that thinks linearly in an exponentially changing era. Our brains evolved to think step-by-step in predictable ways, but technology grows explosively by building on previous innovations. This mismatch creates a ‘perception gap’ where we feel disappointed in the present while underestimating the scale of the wondrous future already taking shape around us.

I too once felt disappointed, wondering, “When on earth will flying cars arrive?” But I soon realized that the disappointment was not with technology itself, but with my own perception.

Join me on this long journey. First, we will explore the psychological biases that create this perception gap and analyze the rollercoaster of hype and disappointment every new technology experiences. Then, we will equip ourselves with new mental tools to better navigate this reality, and finally, we will review the current state of technology to witness the ‘wonders of the future’ already arriving at our doorstep.

1. The Blind Spot of Our Brain: Linear Thinking vs. Exponential Technological Growth

Understanding the fundamental clash between the reality of technological progress and our perception is the starting point of all discussion.

The Engine of Progress: Kurzweil’s Law of Accelerating Returns

Futurist Ray Kurzweil revealed through the Law of Accelerating Returns that technological progress is not linear but an exponential curve that builds on itself. Each stage of innovation creates more powerful tools for the next, accelerating the speed of progress itself.

To understand this simply, consider a metaphor. If you walk 30 steps linearly, you cover about 30 meters, roughly the length of a large room. But if you walk 30 steps exponentially, doubling your stride each time, the distance would be enough to circle the Earth dozens of times and still more. This dramatic difference is what our brains struggle to intuitively grasp.

There is a huge gap between our prediction (straight line) and the reality of technological progress (curve).

This growth is not recent. According to Kurzweil’s analysis, computing technology has followed a steady exponential trend for over 80 years, barely affected by external shocks like wars or economic recessions. This means technological progress is not a passing fad but a powerful force growing continuously with compound interest.

The Psychology of Skepticism: Why Do We See the Curve as a Line?

Our brains have evolved mental shortcuts—cognitive biases—that favor survival but hinder predicting technological futures.

Loss Aversion: The Comfort of the Status Quo

Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman’s theory shows we feel the pain of loss about twice as strongly as the pleasure of gain. This ’loss aversion’ makes us prefer familiar, certain gains over uncertain risks.

Kodak’s executives were not foolish to ignore digital cameras. Psychologically, they were wired to protect their highly profitable film business (certain gain) from the uncertain threat of digital technology (potential loss). This is why we often wanted a ‘faster horse’ rather than an unknown automobile.

Confirmation Bias and Recency Bias: The Echo Chamber of Stagnation

We tend to seek information that confirms our existing beliefs and ignore contradictory evidence. This is called confirmation bias. If we believe progress is slow, we focus on delayed projects and failed startups, ignoring the exponential advances quietly happening in labs.

Recency bias makes us overweight recent events. Recent market crashes or NFT failures feel like more important signals for the future than steady technological progress over the past decade.

Historical Myopia: We’ve Been Wrong Before

Underestimating the future is not new. History is full of misjudgments.

• Automobiles: A banker advised against investing in Henry Ford, calling cars a “passing fad” and claiming “horses will last forever,” perfectly illustrating underestimation of disruptive technology.
• Personal Computers: In 1943, IBM chairman Thomas Watson reportedly predicted a global market of about five computers, showing the limits of imagining the shift from mainframes to personal devices.
• Internet: In 1995, Clifford Stoll wrote in Newsweek that no online database would replace your daily newspaper, a powerful example of experts missing the exponential potential of new platforms.

In conclusion, the feeling that technological progress is slow is not a reflection of reality but a cognitive illusion created by the clash between our linear thinking and exponential technological growth.

2. Anatomy of Hype: Riding the Technology Rollercoaster

There is a social and economic cycle that amplifies our psychological biases, making technological progress feel more erratic and disappointing. This is the ‘Hype Cycle.’

Gartner Hype Cycle: A Map of Our Collective Feelings About Technology

The Gartner Hype Cycle is a powerful framework for understanding the lifecycle of new technologies. It maps our collective hopes and disappointments like a guide.

1. Technology Trigger: A breakthrough technology emerges and media attention begins. The “What if this is possible?” moment.
2. Peak of Inflated Expectations: Driven by FOMO, everyone rushes into the market in irrational excitement.
3. Trough of Disillusionment: The bubble bursts, and the technology fails to meet inflated expectations, declared “just a fad.”
4. Slope of Enlightenment: A quiet revival. 2nd and 3rd generation products appear with practical use cases.
5. Plateau of Productivity: The technology becomes mainstream, deeply integrated into life, no longer new but essential.

Every new technology rides this rollercoaster of hype and disappointment before stabilizing.

Case Studies: Dotcom Bubble and Crypto Winter

• Dotcom Bubble (1995-2001): After the ‘peak of inflated expectations’ where any ‘.com’ attracted investment, the 2000 crash led to the ’trough of disillusionment’ with many bankruptcies. Yet the infrastructure built then became the foundation for true internet revolutions like Google and Amazon.
• Crypto Winter: Following the 2021 NFT frenzy peak, price crashes and exchange collapses led to the classic ’trough of disillusionment.’ But at this point, the true value of blockchain technology quietly began to be built.

The Corporate Trap: The Innovator’s Dilemma

Clayton Christensen’s Innovator’s Dilemma theory explains how successful companies fail by focusing on their best customers and profitable products, ignoring initially inferior disruptive technologies.

Established leaders focus on mainstream markets but lose to disruptive innovations.

• Kodak: Invented the first digital camera but shelved it fearing it would cannibalize their profitable film business.
• Blockbuster: Mocked and rejected Netflix’s acquisition offer in 2000, failing to see the disruptive potential of streaming.

The ’trough of disillusionment’ we feel as slowness is the most dangerous moment for incumbents and the most critical for challengers.

3. Mental Toolbox for the Exponential Era

It is important to equip ourselves with new mental models to think differently about the future.

① Antifragile: Getting Stronger from Shocks

Thinker Nassim Taleb named the property of not just surviving shocks but growing stronger from them ‘Antifragile.’ “The wind blows out a candle but makes a bonfire blaze brighter.”

A practical method is the Barbell Strategy: allocate 90% of resources to extremely safe assets (stable core business) and only 10% to high-risk, high-reward opportunities (side projects, learning new technologies).

② Stockdale Paradox: Face Reality Without Losing Faith

Vietnam War POW Admiral James Stockdale’s survival strategy was paradoxical. He faced the harsh reality that he wouldn’t be released by Christmas, while maintaining an unshakable faith that he would ultimately prevail.

This is the perfect attitude to navigate the hype cycle: accept that technology is currently in the ’trough of disillusionment’ but never lose faith in the long-term exponential trend.

③ Stoic Philosophy: Focus on What You Can Control

Ancient Stoicism offers practical tools to maintain calm in an unpredictable world.

• Negative Visualization (Premeditatio Malorum): Mentally rehearsing worst-case scenarios to build psychological resilience.
• Dichotomy of Control: Focus energy only on what you can control (your actions, learning) and accept what you cannot (market crashes, speed of tech progress).

4. Wonders Already Here: Current State of Technological Progress

Let’s look at concrete examples of technologies transforming from disillusionment to real-world wonders.

Technologies Nearing the Plateau of Productivity: 3D Printing

Once considered a hobby tech for making plastic toys, 3D printing is now a core industrial technology.

• Aerospace: GE Aviation uses 3D printing to produce jet engine parts, reducing weight and improving fuel efficiency.
• Medical: Patient-specific skull and jaw implants are 3D printed, shortening surgery times and aiding recovery.

3D printing is no longer science fiction but an essential medical technology.

Technologies Climbing the Slope of Enlightenment: AI and Blockchain

• AI and Robotics: Beyond the generative AI chatbot craze, AI is merging with smart factory robots to maximize productivity and improve surgical robot precision, innovating the physical world.
• Blockchain: After the crypto winter bubble burst, blockchain is quietly being used to enhance supply chain transparency (IBM, Musk examples) and enable self-sovereign identity where individuals control their own data.

Technologies at the Technology Trigger Stage: Next-Generation Curves

• Quantum Computing: Still early, but if successful, it will solve problems current supercomputers cannot, like drug discovery and new materials science, drawing the next S-curve in computing.
• Nuclear Fusion: Long joked as “always 20 years away,” private companies now raise billions aiming for net energy production within a decade. Success would provide humanity with nearly limitless clean energy.

Conclusion

The feeling that technological progress is slow is an illusion born from the clash between our linear thinking and the exponential reality of innovation. Current disappointment is not failure but a necessary phase before essential future technologies emerge.

Three Key Takeaways

1. Perception Illusion: Our brains cannot intuitively grasp exponential technological growth, causing us to mistakenly feel progress is slow.
2. Predictable Cycle: Every new technology follows a hype cycle of inflated expectations and disillusionment before settling into our lives.
3. Wise Response: Future uncertainty can be navigated with mental tools like Antifragile thinking and the Stockdale Paradox.

What should we do now? Like Amazon’s ‘Day 1’ philosophy, instead of cynically viewing technologies stuck in the ’trough of disillusionment,’ approach them with curiosity and ask, “What can I learn here? What will the next version of this technology look like?”

The future does not wait. It is already here around us, disguised as disappointment and quiet effort. Only when we change how we see it can we witness the wonders unfolding right before our eyes.